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Winners

KEEP 260506-TNT-STA-URG-IMP-BackInStock-v1

ROAS 3.15x CPP ₹739 Spend ₹4,434 Purchases 6 CTR 1.27%

Strongest active ROAS in account. Just under SCALE thresholds — next ABO duplicate candidate.

KEEP 260301-BTO-PRT-AUT-RES-BiswasTiwari-v1

ROAS 2.66x CPP ₹889 Spend ₹7,115 Purchases 8

Decay 3.57x → 2.66x but still well above target. Hook 13% means ASC is finding a narrow audience — try warm ABO.

KEEP 260301-BTO+LOY-STA-CMP-IMP-HottestPerfumeDeal-v1

ROAS 2.01x CPP ₹948 Spend ₹5,691 Purchases 6

Decay 2.55x → 2.01x. At target. Combo CMP angle still working — variations needed urgently.

KEEP 260506-TNT-STA-URG-AES-BackInStock-v2

ROAS 1.91x CPP ₹985 Spend ₹3,938 CTR 1.44%

CTR 1.44% strong for static. ATC 33, Checkouts 25 — driving intent. Confirms TNT URG breakout.

KEEP 260301-LOY-STA-AES-PRM-FreshCitrusWarmWoods-v1

ROAS 1.67x CPP ₹945 Spend ₹3,780 CTR 1.05%

Improvement 1.38x → 1.67x. CPP under target. Best LOY solo this period.

Money Losers

PAUSE 260301-BTO-STA-UCT-UNA-GoodSummerFragrance-v1

ROAS 1.23x CPP ₹1,758 Spend ₹5,273 ATC 17 Purchases 3

Decay 1.78x → 1.23x at 3.3× AOV. Last week's URL-swap iteration didn't recover it.

PAUSE 260301-BTO-STA-URG-IMP-LowStock-v1

ROAS 0.75x CPP ₹2,003 Spend ₹2,003 CTR 1.05%

Decay rule fired: ROAS < 1.0x at >₹2k spend. LOY-LowStock variant already paused for same reason.

ALREADY PAUSED 260301-BTO-PRT-AUT-RES-Gary-v2

ROAS 1.12x Spend ₹14,224 Purchases 8

Period's biggest budget drain. No action — confirms last week's PAUSE call held.

ALREADY PAUSED 260301-BTO-FND-AUT-RES-ReviewerSetup-v1

ROAS 0.65x Spend ₹8,406 Hook 12%

Two-trigger PAUSE confirmed. No action.

ALREADY PAUSED 260504-BTO+LOY-SCP-SOC-SKP-CityGuess-v1

ROAS 0.52x Spend ₹4,779 CTR 0.26%

SCP format dead. ₹6.4k+ tested across two SCP ads — no more SCP briefs.

Watch Closely

ITERATE 260301-BTO+LOY-OFR-URG-IMP-Buy2for2499-v1

ROAS 1.58x CPP ₹1,373 Spend ₹4,120 ATC 15 Checkouts 14

Decay 2.48x → 1.58x. Combo offer mechanic still works — refresh hook line only, brief 2–3 hook variations.

ITERATE 260301-BTO-FND-AUT-RES-MakingOf-v1

ROAS 1.33x CPP ₹999 Hook 13.9% Hold 12.5% CTR 1.05%

Decay 2.09x → 1.33x. Hook holds, middle of video loses them. → Cut middle by ~30%.

WAIT 260508-BTO+LOY-SKT-DYS-IMP-AiimsCheapDupes-v1

Spend ₹658 Hook 47.7% Hold 33.8% CTR 1.03%

Strongest Hook in account. New format (SKT). 1 day live. Watch for first purchase.

WAIT 260506-BTO-FND-CMP-CVS-FoundersAMA-v1

Spend ₹1,211 Hook 32.3% Hold 28.4% CTR 1.12%

Exceptional founder-format engagement. 0 purchases yet. Check at ₹1,600.

WAIT 260504-LOY-FND-AUT-RES-LongevitySecret-v1

Spend ₹821 CTR 2.34% Hook 22.9% Hold 23.8%

Best CTR in account. LOY longevity hypothesis confirming. Check at ₹3,200.

WAIT 260507-TNT-SNT-URG-IMP-Restock-v1

Spend ₹1,334 ROAS 2.45x CPP ₹1,334 CTR 1.02%

First SNT-format ad. Echoing the BackInStock pattern. Only 1 purchase — directional.

Today's Actions

PAUSE GoodSummerFragrance-v1 — Decayed 1.78x → 1.23x at 3.3× AOV. URL swap to bundle didn't recover it. Frees ~₹586/day.

PAUSE LowStock-BTO-v1 — 0.75x ROAS at threshold spend (decay rule). Frees ~₹223/day.

SCALE TEST BackInStock-TNT-v1 — Duplicate to ABO at ₹2,000/day with warm audiences (site visitors, video viewers, lookalikes). Re-evaluate at ₹10k cumulative spend.

ITERATE Buy2for2499-v1 — Brief Sugarman 2–3 hook variations. Keep the offer mechanic intact, refresh the opening line only.

ITERATE MakingOf-FND-v1 — Cut middle of video by ~30%. Hook holds at 13.9%, but Hold drops to 12.5% — body is the leak.

ABO TEST BiswasTiwari-BTO-v1 — 2.66x ROAS but Hook 13% means ASC is finding a narrow audience. Test in ABO with warm audiences to broaden reach.

FLAG Checkout → Purchase rate — Now 24.5% (down from 27% last week). 191 checkouts didn't convert. Outside creative scope — review payment friction, trust signals, abandoned-checkout flows.

Next Few Days — Check Back When

Ad	Spend Now	Signal	Check Back At	Watch For
BTO+LOY-SKT-AiimsCheapDupes-v1	₹658	Strong — Hook 47.7%, Hold 33.8%	₹1,600 (~2 days)	First purchase. If ROAS ≥ 2.0x → KEEP / SCALE candidate. Format unproven, validate at threshold.
BTO-FND-FoundersAMA-v1	₹1,211	Strong — Hook 32%, Hold 28%, CTR 1.12%	₹1,600 (tomorrow)	First purchase. Engagement says yes — verify conversion follows.
LOY-FND-LongevitySecret-v1	₹821	Strong — CTR 2.34% (best in account)	₹3,200 (~3 days)	If ≥ 2 purchases → KEEP. Confirms LOY longevity angle.
TNT-SNT-Restock-v1	₹1,334	Directional — ROAS 2.45x on 1 purchase	₹1,600 (tomorrow)	Second purchase to confirm. If ROAS holds, brief more SNT-format TNT.
LOY-LFS-BuiltForMovement-v1	₹1,780	Weak — 0 purchases at 1.1× AOV	₹2,400 (~1 day)	If still 0 purchases at ₹2,400 → PAUSE.
BTO-SCP-Exchange-v1	₹1,679	Weak — ROAS 0.92x, CTR 0.33%, SCP format dead	Now	Lean PAUSE. SCP format proven dead account-wide — drop without waiting.
LOY-LFS-LoveVideoLetter-v1	₹902	Weak — CTR 0.30%	₹1,600 (~3 days)	If 0 purchases at threshold and CTR stays < 0.5% → PAUSE.
LOY-STA-Airbrush-v1	₹218	Strong CTR 1.83% — too early on spend	₹1,600 (~5 days)	First purchase verdict. Airbrush has been tried in inactive copy at low spend.

Winning Patterns

Pattern	ROAS	Ads	Signal Quality
TNT · STA · URG angle — Back-in-stock / restock framing	2.50x avg	BackInStock-v1 (3.15x), v2 (1.91x), Restock SNT (2.45x early)	Consistent across 3 ads, 2 formats. Clearest breakout of the period. Brief variations now while window is open.
BTO · PRT · AUT angle — Authentic creator review (BiswasTiwari)	2.66x	BiswasTiwari-BTO-v1	Single creator, decaying (3.57x → 2.66x). Test second creator with similar style to confirm format vs creator-specific signal.
BTO+LOY · STA · CMP angle — Combo offer comparison	2.01x	HottestPerfumeDeal (2.01x), Buy2for2499 ITERATE (1.58x)	Decaying — both ads down from prior period. Mechanic still works; hooks need refresh.
FND-format engagement signal — Founder explains (multiple angles)	No purchases yet	FoundersAMA (Hook 32%), LongevitySecret (CTR 2.34%)	Two new founder-led ads with exceptional engagement. Purchase data pending. If they convert, FND becomes the second proven format.
SKT format (new) — Skit / surprise framing	No purchases yet	AiimsCheapDupes (Hook 47.7%)	Strongest hook ever observed in this account. 1 day live, ₹658 spend. Validate at threshold before drawing conclusions.
SCP format — confirmed dead	0.65x avg	CityGuess (paused, 0.52x), Exchange (0.92x), CharacterGuess (no spend)	~₹6.7k tested across 3 ads. No path to viability. Do not brief more SCP. Already dead.
BTO solo at full price — Single-product pages	1.0x avg	GoodSummerFragrance PAUSE, LowStock PAUSE, ProjDysfunction (paused), LikeAnOcean (paused)	Multiple ads, multiple angles, all leak at the post-click step. The problem is the product page / price point — not creative. BTO works only as a combo.

Data Flags

⚠ 9 May data is partial — that day's spend cycle is incomplete. Exclude from single-day comparisons.

⚠ Demographic-breakdown rows have funnel double-counting in ATC and Checkout columns. Account-level totals (302 ATC, 253 Checkouts) used throughout.

⚠ Checkout → Purchase rate has worsened from 27% (last period) to 24.5% — the non-creative leak is widening. Outside Don Draper's scope but flagged for landing-page / payment-friction review.

⚠ AiimsCheapDupes is 1 day live. The 47.7% Hook is exceptional but small sample — verify pattern holds at ₹1,600+ spend before treating it as a proven format.

⚠ VacationScent (5.50x ROAS on ₹309) and List-of-Pros-Loyal-Copy2 (13.44x on ₹186) — both statistically meaningless at this spend. Excluded from verdicts.

⚠ SNT format is new in active portfolio (Restock-v1, AMAObsessedNotes). Treat early ROAS readings as preliminary until format-level baseline is established.